The Philadelphia Phillies are riding strong form heading into Monday, having just won back-to-back home series against the Padres and Reds while outscoring opponents 14-11 over the weekend.
Cristopher Sánchez (7-2, 2.68 ERA) gets the start while on his game, allowing just five total runs across his last four outings and holding the Giants to only three earned runs in 17.2 innings this season.
The San Francisco Giants face him having been streaky and slipped 8 ½ games back in the NL West, though they remain in a tight Wild Card race and are a solid 25-17 at home.
Landen Roupp (6-5, 3.48 ERA) will take the mound for San Francisco after giving up two runs over four innings in his last outing; he’s allowed two or fewer runs in four of his past six starts but did surrender four runs in five innings in a previous meeting with the Phillies.
Let’s break it down.
Run Line
Moneyline
Total
Roupp didn’t hit this line in his last start and that was against a weaker Arizona lineup. He’s only crossed five strikeouts once in his last five starts. This Phillies lineup is more adept at putting the ball in play and ranks mid-pack in strikeouts per game.
His 12% walk rate is creeping up into a concerning territory amongst MLB and none of his swing-and-miss numbers indicate any kind of trust. Taking this into consideration, the market has his Under price hanging around -130, which feels sharp. It’s worth fading him in this spot.
Phillies vs. Giants Prediction and Pick
Sanchez has suffocated the Giants in his career, allowing just three earned runs over 17 ⅔ innings while going 2-0. He’s been locked in recently too, posting a 1.93 ERA across his last seven starts and striking out 108 batters in 100 ⅔ innings.
Roupp is more streaky — four of six starts with two runs or fewer, but also recently giving up four runs in five innings against the Phillies earlier this season. The Phillies offense is clicking, and Sanchez offers significant run support by keeping the Giants in check.
San Francisco’s lineup has really struggled against lefties, putting up just 79 wRC+ and ranking among the worst in baseball versus southpaws. While the Giants have shown spurts of life — averaging six runs in some recent games — the team is inconsistent overall, and they’ve been creeping near a wild-card logjam.
Sánchez inside Oracle, where the environment already helps suppress offense, while Roupp faces a Phillies lineup that includes power hitters such as Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos who excel against right-handed pitching
Pick: Phillies (-134 at FanDuel)
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