Welcome back to Week 17 of our Patience or Panic series, where we profile three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their poor performance. Once play resumes after the All-Star break, it really feels like a sprint to the finish in our fantasy leagues. Some formats with more drawn-out playoff brackets will be starting their postseasons soon, and the rest of us are trying to position ourselves well for the final stretch. A critical part of that is making difficult sit/start and cut/keep decisions.
This week, all three of the players I cover come with considerable fantasy hype. Two of them are veterans who have been getting it done for years now while the third is a hyped-up rookie who’s struggled mightily since getting called up. All stats are through the games of Monday, July 21.
Freddie Freeman, 1B, LAD
Last 30 days (since 6/23): 93 PA, .202/.280/.310 (68 wRC+), 9 R, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB
2025: 371 PA, .292/.364/.471 (132 wRC+), 47 R, 10 HR, 49 RBI, 1 SB
The ever-consistent Freeman has had a rough go of it lately after getting off to a scorching start. He posted an OPS comfortably over 1.000 through May, but that’s cratered to below .600 since. Freeman’s swoon has coincided with struggles from many of his teammates, and as a result, the Dodgers offense as a whole. They’ve only scored 3.6 runs per game in July, with Freeman, Mookie Betts, Tommy Edman, and Teoscar Hernandez all below a .600 OPS in the last 30 days. Don’t worry Dodger fans, you’re still in first by 3.5 games.
Freeman’s rolling Process+ chart shows that some concern is merited. There’s been considerable erosion to his power output, and the contact ability has fallen to below average. This jives with some of Freeman’s other stats, namely a career-worst barrel rate per plate appearance (6.2%) and what would be the second-worst strikeout rate of his career (22.9%). A jump of over four percentage points in swinging strike rate fully supports the strikeout spike. To add insult to injury, Freeman has provided next to no speed, which I imagine can be explained by nagging ankle issues. He was placed on the IL in early April after spraining the surgically-repaired ankle in a shower mishap, and he reportedly was receiving 90 minutes of treatment on it before each game.
Verdict: Panic… mostly. I checked Freeman’s 400-pitch rolling Process+ charts all the way back to 2021, and he’s never dipped below league average in the metric. In fact, there was hardly ever a time where any one of the three aspects was a net negative over the last 400 pitches. I know Process+ isn’t everything and doesn’t map perfectly onto fantasy value, but this trend combined with a potentially lingering injury makes me think that something is wrong here. Freeman’s season-long line remains strong, and he has a lengthy track record of being a wonderful all-categories contributor. If you can move him for a top-30 SP as a result, I would go for it. Without the steals, his profile is now that of a premium accumulator (think pre-2025 Bryan Reynolds with a slightly better average) rather than top-end option at the position.
Jac Caglianone, 1B/OF, KCR
2025: 152 PA, .149/.211/.291 (34 wRC+), 9 R, 5 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB
Simply put, Jac Caglianone has the potential to be one of the most exciting players in baseball. In 2024, he was the closest thing college baseball had to Shohei Ohtani, blasting homers with 80-grade exit velos and throwing heat on the mound. Less than a year later, and now purely focusing on hitting, he was called up to the big leagues to be Kansas City’s everyday right fielder. Mind you, he didn’t play a single inning of outfield at Florida and only had 13 games there under his belt in the minors before getting the call. That’s a lot to throw at the young fella!
Predictably, people in leagues of every depth rushed to add him, and FAAB bids were astronomical. After all, the guy did have 15 homers and a .322 AVG in 50 minor league games. Thus far, it’s been an unmitigated disaster. Even with his homer on Monday, Cags has been the second-worst qualified hitter since his call-up, ahead of only Michael Harris II (27 wRC+). At the risk of stating the obvious, bad luck has been a big factor. His .154 BABIP is easily the worst of any hitter with 150+ PAs. Jared Triolo is second-worst at .176, and there are only four guys below .200!
As you can see from his rolling Process+ chart, Caglianone’s biggest issue is his plate discipline. It may surprise you that it’s not his contact ability given that he’s a hulking slugger, but this is consistent with his amateur scouting report and brief minor league track record. Cags is way too swing-happy at the dish, with a 40.1% chase rate (6th percentile) and 53.1% swing rate (85th percentile). From what we’ve seen so far, pitchers were prepared for this and have taken the right approach to getting Cags out. He has only seen 41% of offerings in the zone (1st percentile). Interestingly, Caglianone has also been attacked inside more than anyone in the league, seeing 38.7% of his pitches there. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s performance so far this year has shown that you can be successful with a high chase rate while seeing a ton of pitches out of the zone, but that feels more like the exception than the rule.
Verdict: Panic… mostly. When I say panic here, I mean it purely in terms of this season, and I mean it relative to what managers were expecting when they initially added Caglianone. If KC keeps running him out there, we will probably see a ton of positive regression in the batting average department, and he should maintain a 20-25 homer pace. But, I think it’s unlikely that Caglianone is the game-changer that people who added him were hoping for, especially given how weak Kansas City’s offense is. It has definitely improved in recent weeks as Salvador Perez has caught fire, but there’s still quite a few guys in there that don’t strike me as everyday major-leaguers.
I think patience is warranted in deeper leagues and of course keeper/dynasty formats, but those hoping for a Nick Kurtz-type breakout might have to wait until next season. While Cags’ fellow 2024 draftee has sub-par contact ability, his swing decisions are strong, and he was able to adjust more quickly than Cags has. Aside from 25 terrible plate appearances in April, Kurtz has had an OPS above .850 every single month of his career.
My rest of season outlook on Caglianone in shallower leagues is that he’s an OK bench bat for teams in need of power or positional versatility, but he doesn’t have a clear path to relevance in 12-team, 3-OF leagues barring some drastic changes in his approach at the plate. At the same time, I would be open to acquiring him in a 15-teamer or 5 OF league if he’s dropped or you only have to give away a mediocre player. I know I’m waffling a bit here, but that’s where I’m at on the guy! We can hope for a reasonable draft price next year as a result of these struggles, but the tools are probably too loud to permit that.
Sonny Gray, SP, STL
Last four starts (since 7/2): 1-2, 17.2 IP, 22 Ks, 7.64 ERA, 1.47 WHIP
2025: 9-4, 111.1 IP, 123 Ks, 4.04 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
A down stretch got a lot worse for Gray this weekend, as the Diamondbacks pounded him to the tune of nine runs (eight earned) on 11 hits in 3.1 IP. The outing pushed his ERA over 4.00 for the first time since after his start on May 25. On the bright side, his velocity was in line with where it’s been all season, and he somehow still managed a 33% CSW%.
Gray is a pitcher who thrives by being unpredictable. He features six pitches at least 7% of the time and has four offerings above 10% usage for batters of both handedness. As a result, batters are often unable to sit on any one offering. It allows his stuff to play up even though he lacks a truly elite pitch like many frontline guys. His best offering is the sweeper, whose 5.43 PLV is in the 85th percentile. It has an astounding swinging strike rate of 24% against both righties and lefties, and I think he could benefit from upping its usage, which is currently at 20%.
Verdict: Patience. The 4.04 ERA belies Gray’s fantasy value to date this year, as he’s been solid to elite in strikeouts, WHIP, and wins. The ERA above isn’t indicative of how well he’s pitched this year. His 23% K-BB% is elite and almost matches last year’s career-best mark of 24.4%, a season in which Gray had a middling 3.84 ERA but fanned over 200 hitters with a sparkling 1.09 WHIP. Gray’s stuff is slightly diminished from last year, with his velocity down a tick, but he’s clearly still executing at a high level. PLV backs this up, as Gray has only had two outings with a PLV below 5.00 since May 7. I would be buying him as a top-35 SP if someone is frustrated with this recent poor stretch.
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