The Miami Marlins (34-45) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (41-39) open a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from Chase Field in Phoenix is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB.TV Free Game of the Day). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Marlins vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Diamondbacks lead 3-0
The Marlins have won a season-best 4 straight and are coming off a 3-game sweep at the San Francisco Giants. Miami completed the sweep with a 12-5 victory Thursday, cashing as +155 underdogs with the Over (7.5) hitting. LF Kyle Stowers and DH Agustín Ramírez both homered in the finale — Stowers with a 3-run shot in the first inning and Ramírez with a 2-run blast in the third.
The Diamondbacks won 2 of 3 at the Chicago White Sox, failing to complete a sweep in the Wednesday finale with a 7-3 loss as -144 favorites with the Over (8) cashing. 1B Josh Naylor gave Arizona an early 2-0 lead Wednesday with a 2-run homer in the first inning. However, Chicago responded with 2 runs in the bottom of the inning and outscored the Diamondbacks 5-1 from the fourth through the eighth.
Marlins at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Eury Pérez vs. RHP Merrill Kelly
Pérez (0-2, 6.17 ERA) makes his fourth start. He has allowed 12 hits and 7 walks with 11 K’s through 11 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 7-0 home defeat vs. Atlanta Braves Saturday
- 2025 road stats: 0-1, 6.43 ERA (7 IP, 5 ER), 1.86 WHIP, 8 H, 5 BB, 5 K in 2 starts
- Has never faced Diamondbacks
Kelly (7-3, 3.39 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 93 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 6 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 5-3 victory at Colorado Rockies Saturday
- 2025 home stats: 3-2, 3.09 ERA (46 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 8 starts
- 2025 vs. Marlins: 1 road start (April 15), win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 10-4 victory
- Career vs. Marlins: 1-2, 5.52 ERA (29 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 in 5 starts
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!
Marlins at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Diamondbacks -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-130) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -118)
Marlins at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 5, Marlins 4
Miami (+150) is just 1-2 in Pérez’s starts this year, while Arizona (-185) has won 3 of Kelly’s last 4. The Diamondbacks will likely win Friday, but they’re being overvalued on the ML.
PASS on the ML.
Miami has covered the +1.5 run line in 16 of its last 21 games. On the other side, Arizona has won just 4 of Kelly’s 16 starts this season by multiple runs. While the Diamondbacks have been profitable on the run line lately — winning 5 of their last 7 games by 2 or more runs — the Marlins have been too reliable over a larger sample to justify fading them at +1.5 (-130).
BET MARLINS +1.5 (-130).
The Marlins have scored 4 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games, while the Diamondbacks have plated 5 or more in 4 of their last 7, going 4-3 to the Over in that span.
Pérez has allowed 3 or more earned runs in 2 of his 3 starts this season. While Kelly has held opponents to 2 earned runs or fewer in 3 of his last 4 outings, he’ll have his hands full against a Marlins lineup that has scored a total of 20 runs over its last 2 games.
BET OVER 8.5 (-102).
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow @corey_a_scott on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Leave a Reply